Den 1852eb8466 tools(sentry): measure gate uptake from the population that emits the errors (#176) ...

The AGE-105 grader multiplies the baseline by `1 - gated_share * efficacy`, so
`gated_share` decides the verdict. Its only source was Play's version share,
which cannot see this app's primary install channels: the self-hosted F-Droid
repo and the direct-APK release, both of which are what the marketing pages
actually point at.

Sentry release health can. Sessions are stored under a separate quota from
errors, so they keep arriving while the org is over its error quota and every
error is rate-limited away — which is exactly when this number is needed. It is
also the right population by construction: a device that sends a session is a
device that can send an error.

First live reading (7d to 2026-08-14, org vibetechnologies):

    0.4.10   801 users  78.5%   ungated
    0.4.12   161 users  15.8%   ungated
    0.4.14     7 users   0.7%   gated
    gated share 0.7% (users) / 0.2% (sessions)

v0.4.10 has held ~78% for four weeks and v0.4.12 sat flat at ~16% for three,
so this install base does not auto-converge on the newest build. Until that
cohort moves, the ceiling on any client-side volume reduction is ~21.5%.

Tests pin the parts that fail silently: 0.4.9 vs 0.4.10 ordering, unparseable
releases staying in the denominator (dropping them inflates the share), an
empty window returning null rather than 0, user-vs-session divergence, and a
projection that refuses horizons and flat series instead of inventing uptake.

Co-authored-by: Bertram Gilfoyle <agent@paperclip.ing>
Co-authored-by: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>

2026-08-14 09:36:12 -07:00

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