70b307944a
The publish workflow overwrites versionCode with github.run_number + 100, so the gradle number (40) is not what Play reports. Production dispatch run 49 -> versionCode 149. Without this row, play-version-share.mjs reports the new release as an unknown versionCode and the AGE-100 after-number cannot be split by build. Co-authored-by: engineer <engineer@macbookpro.lan> Co-authored-by: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>
77 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
77 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
# Waitlist signup-path coverage — how much of the install base can't sign up in-app
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_Measured 2026-08-14 for [AGE-61]. Re-run with `node scripts/play-version-share.mjs --github`._
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## The question
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The in-app OpenCode Connect waitlist form posts to `POST /api/beta-signup` (Brevo list 4).
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That code path first shipped in **v0.4.8** (commit `0fdfb54`, 2026-07-18). Every older build
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has exactly one path: open a `mailto:` to support@agentlabs.cc, which lands in a human inbox
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and nowhere near the waitlist store. 20 of 21 signups between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-13 were
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lost that way. So: **how many people are still on a build with no working signup path?**
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## Answer, by channel
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| Channel | Population measured | Pre-v0.4.8 share |
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| --- | --- | --- |
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| Google Play (auto-updates) | ~90–100 daily distinct users, 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-13 | **0%** — Play reports a single versionCode, `142` (v0.4.10). Any older build is below Play's reporting floor (<10 users/day). |
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| Sideload — GitHub release APKs (never auto-update) | 1,682 lifetime APK downloads across all releases | **25.9%** (436 downloads) are pre-v0.4.8 builds. |
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There is no iOS App Store listing (`itunes.apple.com/lookup?bundleId=cc.agentlabs.opencode`
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returns 0 results) and the app is not on IzzyOnDroid, so those channels contribute nothing.
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## What that means
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1. **Play is not the problem.** Auto-update did its job: the measurable Android active base is
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effectively 100% on a build that can sign up through the API.
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2. **The stale cohort is sideload-only and permanent.** ~436 devices pulled an APK that predates
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the signup API. Nothing will ever update them; they will keep emitting mailto signups until
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the owner manually re-downloads. The hourly reconciler
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(`VibeBrowserProductPage/.github/workflows/waitlist-mailto-reconcile.yml`) is what keeps those
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signups from being lost, and it is not a temporary measure.
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3. **Stale builds are not the only source of mailto signups** — they are, as of AGE-87, the only
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*remaining* one. Until v0.4.12 the fallback also fired on network error, timeout (8s) and 5xx,
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so a user on a current build with flaky mobile data took the same lossy path. That path is gone:
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a failed signup is now persisted on-device (`opencode.waitlist.pending.v1`, AsyncStorage) and
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retried on every app foreground (`src/lib/waitlist.ts` queue section, flushed from
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`app/_layout.tsx`). `mailto:` is only ever opened by an explicit user tap after repeated
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retry failures. Expect the reconciler's `synced_count` to trend toward the sideload cohort only.
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Any plan that assumes "ship an update and the leak closes" is still wrong for those ~436 devices.
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## After-number: how it gets attributed (AGE-100)
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_Pending — v0.4.13 (the first build users can actually run the retry queue on) went to the Play **production** track on 2026-08-14 as **versionCode 149** ([run 31786473735](https://github.com/dzianisv/opencode-mobile/actions/runs/31786473735)). Re-read one week out._
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Baseline at release time, from the hourly reconciler's last run before the cut
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(`Waitlist Mailto Reconcile`, 2026-08-14 07:59 UTC): `scanned=34 synced=0 skipped=34 failed=0`
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— i.e. 34 known mailto conversations, all already healed into the store, nothing new that hour.
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The reconciler reads a Chatwoot mail body, so "split by app version" only works if the body
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carries one. It did not. As of v0.4.13 the escape hatch stamps `App: OpenCode Mobile v<version>`
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into the mail (`buildWaitlistMailtoUrl`, `src/lib/waitlist.ts`). That gives a clean read a week out:
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| Mail body | Means |
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| --- | --- |
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| no `App:` line | a build older than v0.4.13 — expected, this is the ~436-device sideload cohort no release can reach |
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| `App: OpenCode Mobile v0.4.13` or newer | a current build still reached mailto — the retry queue leaked, **file it as a new defect with the mail as evidence** |
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## Method / reproducing
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```bash
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GOOGLE_PLAY_SERVICE_ACCOUNT_JSON="$(cat play-store-key.json)" \
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node scripts/play-version-share.mjs --days 14 --github
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```
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- Play numbers come from the Play Developer Reporting API, `crashRateMetricSet` →
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`distinctUsers` grouped by `versionCode`. That is Play's own vitals denominator: users who
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actually opened the app. It only covers devices with usage-and-diagnostics sharing on, and Play
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rounds it — which is why we quote a share, never an absolute install count.
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- Play versionCodes are **not** the ones in `android/app/build.gradle`: the publish workflow
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overwrites them with `github.run_number + 100`. The mapping in the script was derived from the
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successful runs of `publish-play-store.yml` (`versionCode 139` = v0.4.8 = first build with the
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API path).
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- The service account is the same `PLAY_STORE_SERVICE_ACCOUNT_JSON` already used to publish; the
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script needs only the `playdeveloperreporting` scope and mints its own token, no extra deps.
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[AGE-61]: https://github.com/dzianisv/VibeBrowserProductPage/pull/234
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