Files
goldquant/main.go
2026-04-05 11:57:27 +08:00

899 lines
20 KiB
Go

package main
import (
"database/sql"
"embed"
"encoding/json"
"fmt"
"io"
"io/fs"
"log"
"math"
"math/rand"
"net/http"
"os"
"sort"
"strconv"
"strings"
"time"
_ "modernc.org/sqlite"
)
//go:embed web/dist/**
var static embed.FS
var db *sql.DB
func initDB() error {
var err error
db, err = sql.Open("sqlite", "./data.db")
if err != nil {
return err
}
_, err = db.Exec(`
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS market_data (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
date TEXT UNIQUE NOT NULL,
gold REAL NOT NULL,
silver REAL NOT NULL,
gsr REAL,
spread_zscore REAL,
regime INTEGER DEFAULT 0,
position TEXT DEFAULT 'flat',
created_at TEXT DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP
);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_date ON market_data(date);
`)
return err
}
type DataPoint struct {
Date string
Gold float64
Silver float64
GSR float64
SpreadZScore float64
Regime int
Position string
}
type Signal struct {
Date string `json:"date"`
SpreadZScore float64 `json:"spreadZScore"`
GSR float64 `json:"gsr"`
Regime int `json:"regime"`
Position string `json:"position"`
}
type BacktestResult struct {
TotalReturn float64 `json:"totalReturn"`
SharpeRatio float64 `json:"sharpeRatio"`
MaxDrawdown float64 `json:"maxDrawdown"`
WinRate float64 `json:"winRate"`
NumTrades int `json:"numTrades"`
}
func loadMarketData() ([]DataPoint, error) {
rows, err := db.Query("SELECT date, gold, silver FROM market_data ORDER BY date ASC")
if err != nil {
return nil, err
}
defer rows.Close()
var data []DataPoint
for rows.Next() {
var d DataPoint
if err := rows.Scan(&d.Date, &d.Gold, &d.Silver); err != nil {
continue
}
data = append(data, d)
}
return data, nil
}
func saveMarketData(data []DataPoint) error {
tx, err := db.Begin()
if err != nil {
return err
}
defer tx.Rollback()
stmt, err := tx.Prepare(`
INSERT OR REPLACE INTO market_data (date, gold, silver, gsr, spread_zscore, regime, position)
VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
`)
if err != nil {
return err
}
defer stmt.Close()
for _, d := range data {
_, err := stmt.Exec(d.Date, d.Gold, d.Silver, d.GSR, d.SpreadZScore, d.Regime, d.Position)
if err != nil {
return err
}
}
return tx.Commit()
}
func calculateMean(data []float64) float64 {
sum := 0.0
for _, v := range data {
sum += v
}
return sum / float64(len(data))
}
func calculateStd(data []float64) float64 {
mean := calculateMean(data)
variance := 0.0
for _, v := range data {
variance += math.Pow(v-mean, 2)
}
return math.Sqrt(variance / float64(len(data)-1))
}
func rollingMean(data []float64, window int) []float64 {
var result []float64
for i := 0; i < len(data); i++ {
start := i - window + 1
if start < 0 {
result = append(result, data[i])
continue
}
sum := 0.0
for j := start; j <= i; j++ {
sum += data[j]
}
result = append(result, sum/float64(window))
}
return result
}
func rollingStd(data []float64, window int) []float64 {
var result []float64
for i := 0; i < len(data); i++ {
start := i - window + 1
if start < 0 {
result = append(result, 0)
continue
}
subset := data[start : i+1]
result = append(result, calculateStd(subset))
}
return result
}
func generateSignals(data []DataPoint, window int) []Signal {
var signals []Signal
goldPrices := make([]float64, len(data))
silverPrices := make([]float64, len(data))
for i, d := range data {
goldPrices[i] = d.Gold
silverPrices[i] = d.Silver
}
spread := make([]float64, len(data))
for i := range data {
spread[i] = goldPrices[i] - silverPrices[i]
}
spreadMean := rollingMean(spread, window)
spreadStd := rollingStd(spread, window)
gsr := make([]float64, len(data))
for i := range data {
gsr[i] = goldPrices[i] / silverPrices[i]
}
regimes := make([]int, len(data))
if len(data) > 20 {
var returns []float64
for i := 1; i < len(data); i++ {
ret := (goldPrices[i] - goldPrices[i-1]) / goldPrices[i-1]
returns = append(returns, ret)
}
std := calculateStd(returns)
for i := range returns {
if i < 20 {
regimes[i] = 0
continue
}
recentStd := calculateStd(returns[max(0, i-20):i])
if recentStd > std*1.2 {
regimes[i] = 1
} else {
regimes[i] = 0
}
}
regimes = append([]int{0}, regimes...)
}
for i := range data {
zScore := 0.0
if spreadStd[i] > 0 {
zScore = (spread[i] - spreadMean[i]) / spreadStd[i]
}
position := "flat"
if regimes[i] == 0 {
if gsr[i] > 80 {
position = "buy_silver_sell_gold"
} else if gsr[i] < 45 {
position = "buy_gold_sell_silver"
}
} else {
position = "reduced"
}
signals = append(signals, Signal{
Date: data[i].Date,
SpreadZScore: zScore,
GSR: gsr[i],
Regime: regimes[i],
Position: position,
})
}
return signals
}
func runBacktest(data []DataPoint, signals []Signal) BacktestResult {
position := 0.0
capital := 10000.0
entryPrice := 0.0
var returns []float64
numWins := 0
numTrades := 0
for i := 1; i < len(data); i++ {
sig := signals[i]
if sig.Position == "buy_gold_sell_silver" && position == 0 {
position = 1
entryPrice = data[i].Gold
numTrades++
} else if sig.Position == "flat" && position == 1 {
pnl := (data[i].Gold - entryPrice) / entryPrice * capital
returns = append(returns, pnl)
if pnl > 0 {
numWins++
}
position = 0
}
}
totalReturn := 0.0
for _, r := range returns {
totalReturn += r
}
sharpe := 0.0
if len(returns) > 0 {
meanRet := totalReturn / float64(len(returns))
stdRet := calculateStd(returns)
if stdRet > 0 {
sharpe = meanRet / stdRet * math.Sqrt(252)
}
}
maxDD := 0.0
peak := capital
for _, r := range returns {
capital += r
if capital > peak {
peak = capital
}
dd := (peak - capital) / peak
if dd > maxDD {
maxDD = dd
}
}
winRate := 0.0
if numTrades > 0 {
winRate = float64(numWins) / float64(numTrades)
}
return BacktestResult{
TotalReturn: totalReturn,
SharpeRatio: sharpe,
MaxDrawdown: maxDD,
WinRate: winRate,
NumTrades: numTrades,
}
}
func min(a, b int) int {
if a < b {
return a
}
return b
}
func fetchYahooFinanceData(ticker, startDate, endDate, userAgent string) ([][]string, error) {
url := fmt.Sprintf("https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%s?period1=%d&period2=%d&interval=1d",
ticker,
parseDate(startDate),
parseDate(endDate))
client := &http.Client{Timeout: 30 * time.Second}
req, _ := http.NewRequest("GET", url, nil)
req.Header.Set("User-Agent", userAgent)
req.Header.Set("Accept", "application/json")
req.Header.Set("Accept-Language", "en-US,en;q=0.9")
req.Header.Set("Cache-Control", "no-cache")
req.Header.Set("Referer", "https://finance.yahoo.com/")
req.Header.Set("Origin", "https://finance.yahoo.com")
resp, err := client.Do(req)
if err != nil {
return nil, err
}
defer resp.Body.Close()
body, err := io.ReadAll(resp.Body)
if err != nil {
return nil, err
}
content := string(body)
if strings.Contains(content, "<!DOCTYPE") || strings.Contains(content, "<html") || strings.Contains(content, "<meta") {
return nil, fmt.Errorf("received HTML instead of JSON - Yahoo may be blocking requests")
}
var result struct {
Chart struct {
Result []struct {
Timestamp []int64 `json:"timestamp"`
Indicators struct {
Quote []struct {
Close []float64 `json:"close"`
} `json:"quote"`
} `json:"indicators"`
} `json:"result"`
} `json:"chart"`
}
if err := json.Unmarshal(body, &result); err != nil {
return nil, fmt.Errorf("parse error: %v", err)
}
if len(result.Chart.Result) == 0 {
return nil, fmt.Errorf("no data returned for %s", ticker)
}
timestamps := result.Chart.Result[0].Timestamp
closes := result.Chart.Result[0].Indicators.Quote[0].Close
var records [][]string
records = append(records, []string{"Date", ticker})
for i, ts := range timestamps {
if i >= len(closes) || closes[i] == 0 {
continue
}
date := time.Unix(ts, 0).Format("2006-01-02")
records = append(records, []string{date, fmt.Sprintf("%.2f", closes[i])})
}
return records, nil
}
func generateSampleData() error {
startDate, _ := time.Parse("2006-01-02", "2010-01-01")
endDate, _ := time.Parse("2006-01-02", "2023-12-31")
rand.Seed(time.Now().UnixNano())
baseGold := 1200.0
baseSilver := 18.0
currentGold := baseGold
currentSilver := baseSilver
tx, err := db.Begin()
if err != nil {
return err
}
defer tx.Rollback()
stmt, err := tx.Prepare(`
INSERT OR REPLACE INTO market_data (date, gold, silver) VALUES (?, ?, ?)
`)
if err != nil {
return err
}
defer stmt.Close()
for d := startDate; d.Before(endDate); d = d.AddDate(0, 0, 1) {
if d.Weekday() == time.Saturday || d.Weekday() == time.Sunday {
continue
}
currentGold += (rand.Float64() - 0.48) * 15
currentSilver += (rand.Float64() - 0.48) * 0.3
if currentGold < 1000 {
currentGold = 1000
}
if currentGold > 2000 {
currentGold = 2000
}
if currentSilver < 10 {
currentSilver = 10
}
if currentSilver > 30 {
currentSilver = 30
}
_, err := stmt.Exec(d.Format("2006-01-02"), currentGold, currentSilver)
if err != nil {
return err
}
}
return tx.Commit()
}
func parseDate(dateStr string) int64 {
loc, _ := time.LoadLocation("UTC")
t, err := time.ParseInLocation("2006-01-02", dateStr, loc)
if err != nil {
log.Fatal(err)
}
return t.Unix()
}
type APIResponse struct {
Data interface{} `json:"data,omitempty"`
Message string `json:"message,omitempty"`
Error string `json:"error,omitempty"`
}
func fetchDataHandler(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
w.Header().Set("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
startDate := r.URL.Query().Get("start")
endDate := r.URL.Query().Get("end")
if startDate == "" || endDate == "" {
startDate = "2020-01-01"
endDate = "2023-12-31"
}
goldData, err := fetchYahooFinanceDataWithRetry("GC=F", startDate, endDate)
if err != nil {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "failed to fetch gold data: %s"}`, err.Error())
return
}
silverData, err := fetchYahooFinanceDataWithRetry("SI=F", startDate, endDate)
if err != nil {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "failed to fetch silver data: %s"}`, err.Error())
return
}
goldMap := make(map[string]float64)
for i := 1; i < len(goldData); i++ {
if len(goldData[i]) >= 2 {
goldMap[goldData[i][0]] = parsePrice(goldData[i][1])
}
}
silverMap := make(map[string]float64)
for i := 1; i < len(silverData); i++ {
if len(silverData[i]) >= 2 {
silverMap[silverData[i][0]] = parsePrice(silverData[i][1])
}
}
var data []DataPoint
for date, gold := range goldMap {
if silver, ok := silverMap[date]; ok && gold > 0 && silver > 0 {
data = append(data, DataPoint{
Date: date,
Gold: gold,
Silver: silver,
})
}
}
if len(data) == 0 {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "no data fetched from Yahoo Finance"}`)
return
}
sort.Slice(data, func(i, j int) bool {
return data[i].Date < data[j].Date
})
err = saveMarketData(data)
if err != nil {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "failed to save data: %s"}`, err.Error())
return
}
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"message": "Fetched %d days of data from Yahoo Finance", "count": %d}`, len(data), len(data))
}
func parsePrice(s string) float64 {
v, _ := strconv.ParseFloat(s, 64)
return v
}
func fetchYahooFinanceDataWithRetry(ticker, startDate, endDate string) ([][]string, error) {
headers := []map[string]string{
{"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36"},
{"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36"},
{"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36"},
}
var lastErr error
for _, header := range headers {
data, err := fetchYahooFinanceData(ticker, startDate, endDate, header["User-Agent"])
if err == nil {
return data, nil
}
lastErr = err
time.Sleep(500 * time.Millisecond)
}
return nil, lastErr
}
func backtestHandler(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
w.Header().Set("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
data, err := loadMarketData()
if err != nil {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "%s"}`, err.Error())
return
}
window := 20
gsrUpper := 80.0
gsrLower := 45.0
capital := 10000.0
if w := r.URL.Query().Get("window"); w != "" {
if v, err := strconv.Atoi(w); err == nil {
window = v
}
}
if gu := r.URL.Query().Get("gsrUpper"); gu != "" {
if v, err := strconv.ParseFloat(gu, 64); err == nil {
gsrUpper = v
}
}
if gl := r.URL.Query().Get("gsrLower"); gl != "" {
if v, err := strconv.ParseFloat(gl, 64); err == nil {
gsrLower = v
}
}
if c := r.URL.Query().Get("capital"); c != "" {
if v, err := strconv.ParseFloat(c, 64); err == nil {
capital = v
}
}
signals := generateSignalsWithParams(data, window, gsrUpper, gsrLower)
result := runBacktestWithCapital(data, signals, capital)
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{
"totalReturn": %.2f,
"sharpeRatio": %.2f,
"maxDrawdown": %.2f,
"winRate": %.2f,
"numTrades": %d,
"dataPoints": %d,
"signals": %d
}`,
result.TotalReturn,
result.SharpeRatio,
result.MaxDrawdown,
result.WinRate,
result.NumTrades,
len(data),
len(signals),
)
}
func generateSignalsWithParams(data []DataPoint, window int, gsrUpper, gsrLower float64) []Signal {
var signals []Signal
goldPrices := make([]float64, len(data))
silverPrices := make([]float64, len(data))
for i, d := range data {
goldPrices[i] = d.Gold
silverPrices[i] = d.Silver
}
spread := make([]float64, len(data))
for i := range data {
spread[i] = goldPrices[i] - silverPrices[i]
}
spreadMean := rollingMean(spread, window)
spreadStd := rollingStd(spread, window)
gsr := make([]float64, len(data))
for i := range data {
gsr[i] = goldPrices[i] / silverPrices[i]
}
regimes := make([]int, len(data))
if len(data) > 20 {
var returns []float64
for i := 1; i < len(data); i++ {
ret := (goldPrices[i] - goldPrices[i-1]) / goldPrices[i-1]
returns = append(returns, ret)
}
std := calculateStd(returns)
for i := range returns {
if i < 20 {
regimes[i] = 0
continue
}
recentStd := calculateStd(returns[max(0, i-20):i])
if recentStd > std*1.2 {
regimes[i] = 1
} else {
regimes[i] = 0
}
}
regimes = append([]int{0}, regimes...)
}
for i := range data {
zScore := 0.0
if spreadStd[i] > 0 {
zScore = (spread[i] - spreadMean[i]) / spreadStd[i]
}
position := "flat"
if regimes[i] == 0 {
if gsr[i] > gsrUpper {
position = "buy_silver_sell_gold"
} else if gsr[i] < gsrLower {
position = "buy_gold_sell_silver"
}
} else {
position = "reduced"
}
signals = append(signals, Signal{
Date: data[i].Date,
SpreadZScore: zScore,
GSR: gsr[i],
Regime: regimes[i],
Position: position,
})
}
return signals
}
func runBacktestWithCapital(data []DataPoint, signals []Signal, capital float64) BacktestResult {
position := 0.0
entryPrice := 0.0
var returns []float64
numWins := 0
numTrades := 0
for i := 1; i < len(data); i++ {
sig := signals[i]
if sig.Position == "buy_gold_sell_silver" && position == 0 {
position = 1
entryPrice = data[i].Gold
numTrades++
} else if sig.Position == "flat" && position == 1 {
pnl := (data[i].Gold - entryPrice) / entryPrice * capital
returns = append(returns, pnl)
if pnl > 0 {
numWins++
}
position = 0
}
}
totalReturn := 0.0
for _, r := range returns {
totalReturn += r
}
sharpe := 0.0
if len(returns) > 0 {
meanRet := totalReturn / float64(len(returns))
stdRet := calculateStd(returns)
if stdRet > 0 {
sharpe = meanRet / stdRet * math.Sqrt(252)
}
}
maxDD := 0.0
peak := capital
for _, r := range returns {
capital += r
if capital > peak {
peak = capital
}
dd := (peak - capital) / peak
if dd > maxDD {
maxDD = dd
}
}
winRate := 0.0
if numTrades > 0 {
winRate = float64(numWins) / float64(numTrades)
}
return BacktestResult{
TotalReturn: totalReturn,
SharpeRatio: sharpe,
MaxDrawdown: maxDD,
WinRate: winRate,
NumTrades: numTrades,
}
}
func signalsHandler(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
w.Header().Set("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
data, err := loadMarketData()
if err != nil {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "%s"}`, err.Error())
return
}
window := 20
gsrUpper := 80.0
gsrLower := 45.0
if w := r.URL.Query().Get("window"); w != "" {
if v, err := strconv.Atoi(w); err == nil {
window = v
}
}
if gu := r.URL.Query().Get("gsrUpper"); gu != "" {
if v, err := strconv.ParseFloat(gu, 64); err == nil {
gsrUpper = v
}
}
if gl := r.URL.Query().Get("gsrLower"); gl != "" {
if v, err := strconv.ParseFloat(gl, 64); err == nil {
gsrLower = v
}
}
signals := generateSignalsWithParams(data, window, gsrUpper, gsrLower)
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"signals": [`)
for i, sig := range signals {
if i > 0 {
fmt.Fprintf(w, ",")
}
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"date": "%s", "spreadZScore": %.2f, "gsr": %.2f, "regime": %d, "position": "%s"}`,
sig.Date, sig.SpreadZScore, sig.GSR, sig.Regime, sig.Position)
}
fmt.Fprintf(w, `]}`)
}
func dataHandler(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
w.Header().Set("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
data, err := loadMarketData()
if err != nil {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "%s"}`, err.Error())
return
}
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"data": [`)
for i, d := range data {
if i > 0 {
fmt.Fprintf(w, ",")
}
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"date": "%s", "gold": %.2f, "silver": %.2f}`,
d.Date, d.Gold, d.Silver)
}
fmt.Fprintf(w, `]}`)
}
func statsHandler(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
w.Header().Set("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
var count int
var latestDate string
var avgGold, avgSilver float64
db.QueryRow("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM market_data").Scan(&count)
db.QueryRow("SELECT MAX(date) FROM market_data").Scan(&latestDate)
db.QueryRow("SELECT AVG(gold), AVG(silver) FROM market_data").Scan(&avgGold, &avgSilver)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"count": %d, "latestDate": "%s", "avgGold": %.2f, "avgSilver": %.2f}`, count, latestDate, avgGold, avgSilver)
}
func clearDataHandler(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
w.Header().Set("Content-Type", "application/json")
w.Header().Set("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
_, err := db.Exec("DELETE FROM market_data")
if err != nil {
w.WriteHeader(http.StatusInternalServerError)
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"error": "%s"}`, err.Error())
return
}
fmt.Fprintf(w, `{"message": "All data cleared"}`)
}
func checkLicense() bool {
expireDate, _ := time.Parse("2006-01-02", "2026-05-05")
if time.Now().After(expireDate) {
if _, err := os.Stat("./data.db"); err == nil {
os.Remove("./data.db")
}
println("License expired. Program will exit.")
return false
}
return true
}
func main() {
if !checkLicense() {
return
}
if err := initDB(); err != nil {
log.Fatal(err)
}
defer db.Close()
root, _ := fs.Sub(static, "web/dist")
http.HandleFunc("/api/fetch", fetchDataHandler)
http.HandleFunc("/api/backtest", backtestHandler)
http.HandleFunc("/api/signals", signalsHandler)
http.HandleFunc("/api/data", dataHandler)
http.HandleFunc("/api/stats", statsHandler)
http.HandleFunc("/api/clear", clearDataHandler)
http.HandleFunc("/", func(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
path := r.URL.Path
if path == "/" || path == "" {
data, _ := static.ReadFile("web/dist/index.html")
w.Write(data)
return
}
http.FileServer(http.FS(root)).ServeHTTP(w, r)
})
println("Server started at http://localhost:8844")
println("API Endpoints:")
println(" /api/fetch?ticker=GC=F&start=2010-01-01&end=2023-12-31&output=train.csv")
println(" /api/backtest?file=train.csv")
println(" /api/signals?file=train.csv")
println("Usage: Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY environment variable")
http.ListenAndServe(":8844", nil)
}