opencode-mobile/distribution/waitlist-signup-path-coverage.md

Waitlist signup-path coverage — how much of the install base can't sign up in-app

Measured 2026-08-14 for AGE-61. Re-run with node scripts/play-version-share.mjs --github.

The question

The in-app OpenCode Connect waitlist form posts to POST /api/beta-signup (Brevo list 4). That code path first shipped in v0.4.8 (commit 0fdfb54, 2026-07-18). Every older build has exactly one path: open a mailto: to support@agentlabs.cc, which lands in a human inbox and nowhere near the waitlist store. 20 of 21 signups between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-13 were lost that way. So: how many people are still on a build with no working signup path?

Answer, by channel

Channel	Population measured	Pre-v0.4.8 share
Google Play (auto-updates)	~90–100 daily distinct users, 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-13	0% — Play reports a single versionCode, 142 (v0.4.10). Any older build is below Play's reporting floor (<10 users/day).
Sideload — GitHub release APKs (never auto-update)	1,682 lifetime APK downloads across all releases	25.9% (436 downloads) are pre-v0.4.8 builds.

There is no iOS App Store listing (itunes.apple.com/lookup?bundleId=cc.agentlabs.opencode returns 0 results) and the app is not on IzzyOnDroid, so those channels contribute nothing.

What that means

1. Play is not the problem. Auto-update did its job: the measurable Android active base is effectively 100% on a build that can sign up through the API.
2. The stale cohort is sideload-only and permanent. ~436 devices pulled an APK that predates the signup API. Nothing will ever update them; they will keep emitting mailto signups until the owner manually re-downloads. The hourly reconciler (VibeBrowserProductPage/.github/workflows/waitlist-mailto-reconcile.yml) is what keeps those signups from being lost, and it is not a temporary measure.
3. Stale builds are not the only source of mailto signups — they are, as of AGE-87, the only remaining one. Until v0.4.12 the fallback also fired on network error, timeout (8s) and 5xx, so a user on a current build with flaky mobile data took the same lossy path. That path is gone: a failed signup is now persisted on-device (opencode.waitlist.pending.v1, AsyncStorage) and retried on every app foreground (src/lib/waitlist.ts queue section, flushed from app/_layout.tsx). mailto: is only ever opened by an explicit user tap after repeated retry failures. Expect the reconciler's synced_count to trend toward the sideload cohort only. Any plan that assumes "ship an update and the leak closes" is still wrong for those ~436 devices.

After-number: how it gets attributed (AGE-100)

Pending — v0.4.13 (the first build users can actually run the retry queue on) ships 2026-08-14.

Baseline at release time, from the hourly reconciler's last run before the cut (Waitlist Mailto Reconcile, 2026-08-14 07:59 UTC): scanned=34 synced=0 skipped=34 failed=0 — i.e. 34 known mailto conversations, all already healed into the store, nothing new that hour.

The reconciler reads a Chatwoot mail body, so "split by app version" only works if the body carries one. It did not. As of v0.4.13 the escape hatch stamps App: OpenCode Mobile v<version> into the mail (buildWaitlistMailtoUrl, src/lib/waitlist.ts). That gives a clean read a week out:

Mail body	Means
no App: line	a build older than v0.4.13 — expected, this is the ~436-device sideload cohort no release can reach
App: OpenCode Mobile v0.4.13 or newer	a current build still reached mailto — the retry queue leaked, file it as a new defect with the mail as evidence

Method / reproducing

GOOGLE_PLAY_SERVICE_ACCOUNT_JSON="$(cat play-store-key.json)" \
  node scripts/play-version-share.mjs --days 14 --github

• Play numbers come from the Play Developer Reporting API, crashRateMetricSet → distinctUsers grouped by versionCode. That is Play's own vitals denominator: users who actually opened the app. It only covers devices with usage-and-diagnostics sharing on, and Play rounds it — which is why we quote a share, never an absolute install count.
• Play versionCodes are not the ones in android/app/build.gradle: the publish workflow overwrites them with github.run_number + 100. The mapping in the script was derived from the successful runs of publish-play-store.yml (versionCode 139 = v0.4.8 = first build with the API path).
• The service account is the same PLAY_STORE_SERVICE_ACCOUNT_JSON already used to publish; the script needs only the playdeveloperreporting scope and mints its own token, no extra deps.