The AGE-105 grader multiplies the baseline by `1 - gated_share * efficacy`, so
`gated_share` decides the verdict. Its only source was Play's version share,
which cannot see this app's primary install channels: the self-hosted F-Droid
repo and the direct-APK release, both of which are what the marketing pages
actually point at.
Sentry release health can. Sessions are stored under a separate quota from
errors, so they keep arriving while the org is over its error quota and every
error is rate-limited away — which is exactly when this number is needed. It is
also the right population by construction: a device that sends a session is a
device that can send an error.
First live reading (7d to 2026-08-14, org vibetechnologies):
0.4.10 801 users 78.5% ungated
0.4.12 161 users 15.8% ungated
0.4.14 7 users 0.7% gated
gated share 0.7% (users) / 0.2% (sessions)
v0.4.10 has held ~78% for four weeks and v0.4.12 sat flat at ~16% for three,
so this install base does not auto-converge on the newest build. Until that
cohort moves, the ceiling on any client-side volume reduction is ~21.5%.
Tests pin the parts that fail silently: 0.4.9 vs 0.4.10 ordering, unparseable
releases staying in the denominator (dropping them inflates the share), an
empty window returning null rather than 0, user-vs-session divergence, and a
projection that refuses horizons and flat series instead of inventing uptake.
Co-authored-by: Bertram Gilfoyle <agent@paperclip.ing>
Co-authored-by: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>
