tools(sentry): org-wide volume report + measure on submitted, not accepted (#172)

* tools(sentry): add org-wide volume report and fix the metric we measure on

The AGE-105 gate is a measured number, so it needs a repeatable query. It also
needed a correction: `accepted` is the wrong headline. The org is over its error
quota, so Sentry rejects nearly everything and `accepted` reads ~0 for every
project - a blown org and a fixed one look identical on that column. The demand
metric is `submitted` = accepted + rate_limited.

scripts/sentry-volume-report.mjs takes named --window ranges and prints
per-project submitted / accepted / rate_limited / client_discard plus the
per-hour and projected per-month rate, so before/after comparisons run the exact
same query instead of being re-derived by hand each time.

Records the pre-rollout baseline in docs/analytics.md: opencode-mobile at
4.71/h (3,441/mo), 87% of the org's post-box-bot demand, from two windows that
agree to within 0.2%.

Co-Authored-By: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>

* test(sentry): pin the noise gate against 90d of real production events

The gate's unit tests prove it behaves as specified. Nothing proved the spec
was aimed at the right targets. Replaying the actual 90d census of the
opencode-mobile Sentry project (648 events, 11 issues) through the gate's own
precedence shows 96.9% hard-dropped as transport noise and every observed crash
class (OOM, ANR, IllegalStateException) still allowlisted -> ~87 events/month
against a 1,500/month target.

Also records two findings from measuring the org directly:

* The error quota resets on the 4th. The 5,000-event month opened 2026-08-04
  and was spent by 08-08; the org has accepted zero errors since. 2026-09-04 is
  the date the gate has to hold by, and it is why 'submitted' is the metric.
* Server-side levers are unavailable on this plan. A per-key rate limit PUT
  returns HTTP 200 and silently discards the value (verified for three window
  sizes), custom inbound filters are absent, spike protection 403s. The client
  gate is the only control that exists, so its coverage is the whole margin.

Refs AGE-105

Co-Authored-By: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>

* tools(sentry): split client_discard by reason so gate drops aren't confused with quota backoff

Raw client_discard cannot show whether the noise gate works. Today 100% of
opencode-mobile's client_discard is ratelimit_backoff -- the SDK backing off a
429 because the ORG is over quota -- which rises when things get WORSE. Gate
drops land in a different reason: @sentry/core records before_send when
beforeSend returns null.

- stats_v2 now groups by reason as well as project/outcome
- the before_send vs ratelimit_backoff split always prints; --by-reason adds
  the full per-project reason table
- before_send > 0 is install-share-independent, so it proves the gate is live
  on real devices days before a monthly rate can bend
- documents that release-level segmentation is impossible while over quota:
  rate_limited events are never stored, so release tags stop (last value
  0.4.12, 2026-08-08). Version share comes from Play, not Sentry.

* ci(sentry): block a Play release whose bundle lost the noise gate

The AGE-105 quota fix is entirely client-side (every server-side lever on
this plan is dead), so the gate being *in the shipped binary* is the whole
safety margin. That is also the one thing Sentry cannot tell us: while the
org is over quota nothing is stored, release tags stop dead at 0.4.12, and
a release:0.4.14 query returns empty in a way that reads like success.

Grep the Hermes bundle inside the AAB instead, before the Play upload step:
the gate's reason codes, the transport drop-list regex, the
noise.dropped_since_last tag only applyNoiseGate() writes, and a baked-in
DSN (a release built without EXPO_PUBLIC_SENTRY_DSN makes Sentry a silent
no-op). Verified to discriminate on real artifacts - the v0.4.14 build now
on Play production passes, pre-gate v0.4.13 fails all six markers.

Also records the rejected alternative: persisting gate state across cold
starts pays off only under ~94 active devices (2,633 session envelopes/7d
vs a 6h cooldown), and the install base is above that.

---------

Co-authored-by: engineer <engineer@macbookpro.lan>
Co-authored-by: Paperclip <noreply@paperclip.ing>

package.json

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
     "android": "expo run:android",
     "typecheck": "tsc --noEmit",
     "check:versions": "node scripts/check-version-parity.mjs",
-    "test": "node --test 'src/**/*.test.ts'"
+    "test": "node --test 'src/**/*.test.ts' 'scripts/*.test.mjs'"
   },
   "dependencies": {
     "@expo/vector-icons": "^15.0.3",